Update for 12 April 2020. Day 80 since the first case in Australia. Key points on Australia Specific:
- New cases dropped substantially yesterday. I suspect that this is actually more due to poor reporting during Easter than a true drop. I will be happy if I am incorrect. lets see what today and tomorrow bring.
- Outcomes also reduced in a similar manner but were still much higher than new cases. Highlighted by the green arrow. This gap between total and active cases growing (red arrow) continues to grow but the active cases is a flatter curve at this stage. Recovery is slower than anticipated.
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 0.93% and continues to creep up. Up by about 30% in a week. This is increase in fatalities is expected based on the disease cycle (Note that this is a point in time calculation and is likely not representative of the true rate for the entire disease.)
- Australia still remain well ahead of most comparative countries on a fatality basis. This is good to note.
Key points on cumulative cases:
- Australia continues to flatten and trend downward toward the doubling every week line. I expect this will take a week or so. (Remember the point about this being a trend and not a point in time calculation on the rate of doubling).
- Other countries, except Sweden, continue in the right direction. UK is slightly increasing.
Key points on total per 1m population:
- New Zealand and Australia still continue to keep pace with each other. New Zealand marginally better.
- USA, UK and Sweden are still trending up compared to other countries.
- Sweden now tracking on same level as UK with UK marginally better than USA.
- Spain continues to have highest per capita case count of the comparative group.
Usual disclaimers on the quality of the data apply ?. Especially the required smoothing.Hope you all have a brilliant day and a safe. Stay safe and keep your distance! If you are heading out, be safe and be vigilant!
