14 Apr CORONAVIRUS STATISTIC UPDATE 13 APRIL 2020
By Steve Modlin – Redlands/Bayside COVID19 Community Discussion
Key points on Australia Specific:
- New cases increased yesterday. This was likely a correction due to poor reporting during Easter as suspected. They were still substantially below that of a few days back so downward trend still holds.
- Outcomes increased nicely. Highlighted by the green arrow. The active cases is a flatter curve at this stage. On reflection it is likely that the flatter curve shows the variable length of time of the disease cycle as new cases will take different time frames to recover (as per a previous post). The important thing is that gap between total and active cases growing (red arrow) continues to grow.
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 0.96% and continues to creep up. This is increase in fatalities is expected based on the disease cycle (Note that this is a point in time calculation and is likely not representative of the true rate for the entire disease.)
Key points on cumulative cases:
- Australia continues to flatten and trend downward toward the doubling every week line. (Remember the point about this being a trend and not a point in time calculation on the rate of doubling).
- UK should hit the 4 day line in a couple of days.
- Other countries, except Sweden, continue in the right direction.
Key points on total per 1m population:
- No substantial change on this.
- New Zealand and Australia still continue to keep pace with each other. New Zealand marginally better.
- USA, UK and Sweden are still trending up compared to other countries. US likely to have more cases per capita than Italy in a few days.
- Sweden now tracking on same level as UK with UK marginally better than USA.
- Spain continues to have highest per capita case count of the comparative group.
Usual disclaimers on the quality of the data apply 😉. Especially the required smoothing.Back to work for some of you today. Hope you all have a wonderful day. Stay safe and keep your distance! If you are heading out, be safe and be vigilant!