Update for 11 April 2020. Day 79 since the first case in Australia. Happy Easter ???!Key points on Australia Specific:
- New cases reduced slightly yesterday. QLD wider testing has been in place for 5 days now so we should have seen higher case numbers appearing by this stage if there was widespread community transmission. So hopefully this means thats not the case. Cannot say for other states.
- Outcomes reduced again but were still much higher than new cases. Highlighted by the green arrow. This gap between total and active cases growing (red arrow) continues to grow but the active cases is a flatter curve at this stage. We hope to see this reduce as more people recover.
- Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is 0.89%. (Note that this is a point in time calculation and is likely not representative of the true rate for the entire disease.)
- We had been watching for CFR to reduce as more mild cases are identified due to more widespread testing. Since the case numbers are not increasing as we had thought, the CFR has not been influenced by this. Recall that the Diamond Princess CFR was 0.99%.
Key points on cumulative cases:
- Australia continues to flatten and trend downward toward the doubling every week line. (Remember the point about this being a trend and not a point in time calculation on the rate of doubling).
- Sweden is a relatively flat curve hovering between doubling every 4 days and doubling every week.
- Other countries, except Sweden, continue in the right direction.
Key points on total per 1m population:
- New Zealand and Australia continue to keep pace with each other. New Zealand marginally better.
- USA, UK and Sweden are still trending up compared to other countries. Sweden is slightly ahead of the UK but behind USA with UK marginally better than USA.
- Spain continues to have highest per capita case count of the comparative group.
Usual disclaimers on the quality of the data apply ?. Especially the required smoothing.Hope you all have a brilliant day and a safe. Stay safe and keep your distance! If you are heading out, be safe and be vigilant!